Happy Opening Day, everyone. Baseball is back. The Red Sox are back.
Last year, I only posted my predictions on social media because they don’t include charts or graphs really. (But I did revisit them at year’s end.) These are mostly just tables. But, why not? Last year, shortly after Opening Day, I wrote about Kristian Campbell perhaps…maybe…finally…being the steady second baseman of the future.
Nope.
Another year, another starting second baseman. This year, step to the plate, Marcelo Mayer.
But this post is not about the revolving door of Red Sox second basemen, but predictions for their year (and a bit about baseball overall) in 2026.
The big picture, how the team fares in the division. I am high on the Sox and have them besting their 89-win season last year, but by one win. My big reason is that the rest of the division did more than the Sox during the offseason and they got better. Not that the Sox got worse, but they just didn’t improve more than the other teams. I hate the Yankees with a passion, but their rotation will get healthy over the course of the summer and they will be the only American League rotation capable of going toe-to-toe with the Sox rotation.
Overall, the AL East remains the Beast of MLB. Four teams have 90+ wins and as we will see in a moment, four of them get to the playoffs.
I think Detroit could potentially run away with the AL Central with Skubal and Framber in the rotation and McGonigle as a rookie. The other Sox are still going to be bad, the Twins will be bad, and I think the AL East will rack up wins there. The AL West? Seattle will be good, but I think everyone else…not so much. More AL East wins.
To the National League. I live in Philadelphia and through osmosis I absorb media coverage of the Phillies. I think the Mets are going to Met and lose the division late. The Phillies not having Wheeler to start the year will not help them early on. Atlanta is also another year older and injury-bit. The Nationals are rebuilding and I think Miami beats them out cleanly.
In the Central, I lived in Chicago and within walking distance of Wrigley. (But it was always cheaper to head to the South Side and watch the Pale Hose.) But, I cannot give them the NL Central. Somehow, someway, Milwaukee manages to make it and I don’t see them stopping in 2026. I think the Reds manage to best the Pirates despite Pittsburgh having Skenes and Griffin (at some point). And the Cardinals? Chaim’s rebuilding.
And the NL West, well it’s going to be the Dodgers. But, I think we saw last year that they are not invincible. They too are another year older. But will any other team in the division catch them? I think not.
So how does that shake out for the playoffs?
Obviously the Sox win it all.
The AL East is the Beast. I think they will beat each other up, but then beat up everyone else. Toronto wins the division—cleanly—whilst New York and Baltimore tie for 2nd with New York winning the tie-breaker because they have the better team. Tampa is doing Tampa things, and so I have them falling flat this year—but I would not be surprised if they win 96 somehow because rookie magic. As for the Sox, I think they finish fourth, but still make the playoffs because the rest of the AL outside of Seattle and Detroit looks pretty weak to start the year.
And of course, Boston can win short series—more on that in a bit—and they obviously run through October and take it all.
But for the Sox in detail, what do I think?
I think, overall, they will be good, not great. But they have the rotation and talent to win in short series, i.e. the playoffs. But in the marathon that is the 162-game season, their lineup is not what it ought to be, in my mind. And I wish their rotation had a bit more upside. But all offseason one of the projection systems said the Sox would not have a single hitter with 20+ home runs. Instead, I see them as mainly a 20+ HR team, with lots of low 20s and with lots of doubles—looking at you, Green Monster. Wilyer Abreu, however, I think he is poised for a monster year. Pun fully intended. I think Duran will be somewhere between who he was two years ago and who he was last year.
In the rotation, Crochet will be good, just not as good as last year. I hope I’m wrong on that. Behind him, Gray, Suarez, and Bello will be solid to good contributors. The backend guys, Oviedo, Early, and Tolle, will all contribute to meaningful wins and provide useful depth. Hopefully the Sox do not need to use starting pitcher numbers 16–18 on their depth chart again.
And at the backend of the rotation, I think you are going to see a lot of saves, because this team is not built to win games by lots of runs. A lot of their 91 wins will be nailbiters into the 8th and 9th innings. But given the age of Chapman and the desire to keep him fresh for October, I would not be surprised to see Whitlock and Slaten getting saves throughout the summer.
Credit for the graphics is mine.