Tag: 2016 Election

  • How Similar Are Pennsylvania and Ohio?

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    At least politically. According to this piece from FiveThirtyEight, maybe not as much as they used to be. From a data visualisation standpoint, what stuck out at me was this plot of correlations of how similar various states are. Basically, the closer to the number 1, the more similar, the closer to 0, the less.…

  • President Bloomberg?

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    I am not watching the conventions for the first time I can recall, because no cable television. But, I am occasionally dipping into live feed coverage. And while Michael Bloomberg spoke FiveThirtyEight linked to a few pieces of content they published earlier. I covered one about candidates abandoning the middle ground earlier. But this one…

  • Hillary Clinton’s E-mail Problem

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    Today Donald Trump should take the stage at the Republican National Convention as he accepts the party’s nomination to run for president. I suspect he will mention Crooked Hillary and quite possibly her e-mails. Thankfully, we have this Washington Post piece from earlier this month that examines the severity of her lapses in security. Credit…

  • Moderate Voters

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    In US presidential politics, the common sense truth is that candidates run to the wings of the parties to get primary voters. They say ridiculous, inane things, but with the hope to walk them back later. Why? Because while they commonly run to the outsides edges during primary season, candidates recognise that in the election…

  • Predicting the Electoral College

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    Well the Democratic DC primaries were last Tuesday and Hillary Clinton won. So now we start looking ahead towards the July conventions and then the November elections. Consequently, if a day is an eternity in politics we have many lifespans to witness before November. But that does not mean we cannot start playing around with…

  • Fact Checking Trump’s Small Multiples

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    Today marks the end of primary season for the US presidential election. By all accounts, at night’s end Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, but Bernie Sanders, while unlikely to win, could make California interesting tonight. And then there is Donald Trump. He is the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee and man, can that guy…

  • Is Pennsylvania the Tipping Point?

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    Today we look at a piece that focuses on my native (and favourite) state: the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. (Along with Virginia, Massachusetts, and Kentucky, we self-identify as a commonwealth and not a state.) FiveThirtyEight examines how Pennsylvania and its shifting political preferences might just be the key (get it? keystone) to the election for both candidates.…

  • Trump Electoral University

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    Brendan Barry
    in

    Okay, that joke was a stretch. But, this piece from the New York Times’ Upshot takes a look at the early polling in the increasingly likely Clinton–Trump matchup in November. Credit for the piece goes to Wilson Andrews, Josh Katz, and Alicia Parlapiano.

  • Trump Knocks out Cruz

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    by

    Brendan Barry
    in

    Donald Trump will be the Republican Party candidate for President of the United States. Last summer I never imagined I would type those words in all seriousness, but after Trump won a majority of the votes in Indiana and likely swept all the delegates there, Ted Cruz suspended his campaign. Two graphics strike my mind…

  • How Trump Could Get to 270

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    by

    Brendan Barry
    in

    Trump won Arizona last night. And that is a big deal, despite losing Utah. He was never expected to win Utah. And while he Arizona was expected, the magnitude of his victory there was…big. If you replicate even something close to that in a demographically similar state like California, he can rack up some big…