Palestine. The Newest Country in the World?

One of the most debated questions one could ask at pub trivia: How many countries are there in the world?

To start, the question cannot be answered completely. What is a country? What is a state? What is a nation? Define recognition. Whose definition?

When I worked at Euromonitor International I had to edit a map for a Moroccan client because the maps and visualisations I designed showed Western Sahara as a disputed and occupied territory along with places like—surprise, surprise—the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Kashmir, and in later years Abyei. The client was upset because Morocco occupies the majority of Western Sahara, particularly the coast and areas containing the area’s natural resources, and claims it to be an integral part of the kingdom. But the Polisario Front occupies the remainder of Western Sahara and claims the whole territory for its people. Some countries, particularly in Africa, recognise Western Sahara as independent—it belongs as a full member of the African Union. The rest of the world largely refuses to recognise Western Sahara as independent whilst also refusing to recognise Morocco’s occupation. Hence my maps.

You can see what I mean if you look closely at this un-Moroccanised map my team made. I have added some orange boxes to highlight Western Sahara along with the West Bank and Gaza, Abyei, and Kashmir. (Some geographies were simply not covered by the company and remained blank. Here the most notable example is Greenland.)

Do you count Western Sahara as a country?

At your pub trivia this week, will you count Palestine as a country?

This past weekend, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Portugal formally recognised Palestine statehood. They were followed this week by France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Andorra, San Marino, and Malta. (Maybe.) Notably, but not surprisingly, Israel and the United States refuse to follow suit.

My first draft of this post then continued with a history of the Israel–Palestine conflict from the most recent/today’s war to the formation of Israel to the Ottoman Empire and ancient history. But I wanted this post to focus on these graphics posted by the BBC. The first comes from earlier this week, prior to said announcements. The second from later.

I like this graphic. The designer chose to use circles as abstractions of countries rather than a more traditional choropleth map coloured by who recognises whom. In the context of an international conflict over geographic borders and statehood, removing the concept of borders shows a subtle attention to the nuances of the debate.

Critically, the yellow may be a touch light vís-a-vís the grey, but it clearly stands in stark contrast to the purple. I should note I saved this graphic from earlier this week before the official announcements of France et al. Today all that yellow is solidly purple.

As you can see in this second graphic, most of the yellows have become purples. Any of concerns over the lightness of the yellow faded.

Earlier I had noted how Belgium and Andorra were part of President Macron’s announcement, however this graphic shows them still awaiting to announce. I wonder if the discrepancy will be resolved when the representatives of the those countries speak at the United Nations. In essence, they have pledged to announce their recognition, but will do so formally in their address to happen later.

Once again, graphics need not be overly complicated or complex to clearly explain a point to the audience. You can easily see most of Africa, the Americas, Asia, and the Middle East recognises Palestine. Europe and Oceania remain the outliers at a regional level. But the use of a black stroke to outline the grey dot of the United States makes clear one point. Whilst the use of dots abstracted countries to discrete data points equal in theory, in practice not all dots are equal.

Credit for the piece goes to the BBC graphics department.

Israel’s Palestine Trilemma

In what feels like forever ago, I wrote about the trilemma facing the British government as it related to Brexit. Brexit presented Westminster with three choices, of which they could only make two as all three were, together, impossible. Once made, those two choices determined the outcome of Brexit. For better or worse, Prime Minister Boris Johnson made that decision.

We can apply the same trilemma system to Israel in relation to the circumstances of Israel and Palestine. I will skip the long history lesson here. Israel faces some tough decisions. I will also skip the critique of Israeli government policy over the last few decades that brought us to this point. Because here is where we are.

Israel needs to balance three things: the importance of being a representative democracy, of being a Jewish state, and of security control of Gaza and the West Bank for the security of Israel. Here is how that looks.

Tough choices.

If Israel wants to remain an ethnically Jewish state—I’m going to also skip the discourse about Jewishness as an ethnicity, though I will point to Judaism as an ethnic religion as opposed to the other Abrahamic universal religions of Christianity and Islam—and it wants to be retain security control over Palestine, i.e. the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, you have what we have today.

If Israel wants to remain an ethnically Jewish state and it wants to be a representative democracy, you get the Two-State Solution. In that scenario, Palestine, again conceived as Gaza and the West Bank, becomes a fully-fledged independent and sovereign state. Israel remains Jewish and Palestine becomes Arab. But, Israel loses the ability to police and militarily control Gaza and the West Bank, instead relying on its newfound partners in the Palestinian Authority or whatever becomes the executive government of Palestine. This has long been the goal of Middle East peace plans, but over the last decade or so you hear Two-State Solution less and less frequently.

Finally, if Israel wants to be a representative democracy, in which case both Jewish citizens and Arab–Israelis and Palestinians all have the right to full political representation without reservations, e.g. the loyalty oath, and it wants to maintain security control over Gaza and the West Bank, you get something I don’t hear often discussed outside foreign policy circles: a non-Jewish, multi-ethnic Israel. Today Arab–Israelis and Palestinians nearly—if not already—outnumber Jewish Israelis. In a representative democracy, it would be near impossible to maintain an ethnically Jewish state in a county where the Jewish population is in the minority. Consequently, Israel would almost certainly cease being a Jewish state.

One can tinker around the edges, e.g. what are the borders of a Two-State Solution West Bank, but broadly the policy choices above determine the three outcomes.

The outstanding question remains, what future does Israel want?

Credit for the piece is mine.

Casualties in Palestine and Israel

Yesterday I mentioned the cost of the conflict in and around Gaza and we looked at a map of damage. Today, we look at a daily-updated graphic from the Washington Post that counts the human cost—the number of dead.

The dead in Palestine and Israel
The dead in Palestine and Israel

Credit for the piece goes to Lazaro Gamio and Richard Johnson.

Devastation in Gaza

I have done quite a fair bit of coverage on Ukraine. It is a terrible story, but I have also been personally interested in Eastern Europe for awhile. But Ukraine is not the only story in the world, we have seen Gaza erupt in flames. But with the recent, temporary ceasefire, we have been able to calculate the physical and human cost of the Israeli airstrikes and incursions. The New York Times in this graphic looks at the destruction wrought by Israel in one neighbourhood of Gaza City.

Destruction in Gaza
Destruction in Gaza

Credit for the piece goes to the New York Times’ graphics department.

Death Toll in Gaza and Israel

Today’s piece, the first not on Québec, is a small but poignant reminder of the disparity between the number of deaths in Gaza and in Israel during this most recent conflict. According to the article, as of 16 July there has been one death in Israel for 194 in Gaza. This small piece from the New York Times shows the geographic location of the attacks from both sides and tallies the number of strikes. And the number of dead.

Comparing the death toll
Comparing the death toll

Credit for the piece goes to Craig Allen, David Furst, Nilkanth Patel, Archie Tse, and Derek Watkins.